SUMMER PLANS

For Toronto Maple Leaf fans, the annual game 7 loss has come and gone meaning it is time to deconstruct the beloved blue and white hockey team like it is done every year.

After signing Mark Giordano to a sweetheart deal for two seasons, it became clear that the Leafs are about to go all-in this season. After coming out and saying the core is not going anywhere, Dubas is perhaps once again publicly laying his job on the line for his guys.

So what does this off-season look like for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

What do we have?

As of right now, the Leafs have about 7 million dollars to re-sign restricted free agents (RFAs) Pierre Engvall, Timothy Liljgren, Rasmus Sandin and Ondrej Kase. They also have a couple unrestricted free agents (UFAs) in Jack Campbell, Ilya Mikheyev, Colin Blackwell and Ilya Lyubushkin. Needless to say, moves will have to be made if the Leafs even want to keep half of these players.

Starting with the RFAs, Timothy Liljgren and Rasmus Sandin will almost certainly play for the Maple Leafs next season barring a big trade, but very unlikely they leave on an offer sheet. Pierre Engvall also seems like a slam dunk to re-sign in Toronto since he shouldn’t command much money either.

Ondrej Kase is an interesting case (pun intended). The 26 year old from Czechia was once upon a time seen as a sure-fire top 6 forward, Kase has battled a slew of injuries that raise question if the Maple Leafs will look at bringing him back.

Scoring 27 points in 50 games gives Kase’s representatives a good argument to cash in but playing just 59 games over the past 3 years will leave clubs hesitant to sign him to a high dollar value with term.

In terms of UFAs, it has been reported that the Leafs and Jack Campbell’s camp are not even close in negotiations. The American netminder was actually named an all star due to his tremendous play in the first half of the season but the latter end of the year and playoffs left plenty to be desired. Don’t expect Campbell playing for the blue and white to be a lock next season.

Ilya Mikheyev looks like he is as good as gone. Amidst trade request rumours earlier in the year, Mikheyev scored at a 33 goal pace whilst being a big help to the penalty kill. Surely there is a team out there willing to give Mikheyev $3-4 million that unfortunately the Leafs do not have the ability to give him.

Ilya Lyubushkin again is a big question mark. It is highly unlikely that both Justin Holl and Lyubushkin are on the Maple Leafs roster come opening day, so expect one (or both) of these two to be out the door. Colin Blackwell was solid in the playoffs, won’t command more than league minimum should the Leafs bring him back.

Trades?

It is no secret that the Leafs are in a bit of a cap crunch and will likely need to move some salary out should they want to bring their young guys back.

Jake Muzzin seems to be the name, not in the “big four”, that is being thrown around in trade rumours due to his spot in the lineup being pretty much stolen by Mark Giordano. The Leafs left side on defence consists of Rielly, Giordano and Sandin being locks to play in October. Muzzin will be a tough guy to move should they do it. Not only does he have a full no-movement clause, but he is a leader in the locker room. On a team that evidently lacked leadership at times throughout the recent playoffs, it is certainly difficult to move a guy like Muzzin who also provides positive impacts on both sides of the ice.

However, it is a business and Muzzin’s $5.625 million dollar cap hit just is not worth it for the next two seasons. With injury concerns as well, Muzzin seems like the most likely guy out of the door.

Alexander Kerfoot also seems like a guy who is going to see his Maple Leaf career come to an end. Despite having a career year in points, his $3.5 million cap hit is not worth it, especially when Kerfoot doesn’t have a set spot in the lineup. His versatility to play all three forward positions is highly useful, but it is highly unlikely he replicates this season since he massively out performed his on-ice expected goals percentage. Kerfoot is a guy that the Leafs could “sell high” on since he could still return decent draft picks and assets.

Justin Holl being traded feels unlikely which could be bad news for a large portion of the fan base. Holl is a popular guy off the ice on a reasonable cap hit for what he brings. After a shaky start to the regular season, the right handed defender came into his own playing well in sheltered minutes beside Muzzin. Dubas likes his guys and Holl was groomed with the Dubas led Marlies to now playing top 4 minutes in the big leagues. His underlying numbers to the shock of many were very good on top of that.

The Core 5

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly are the core of this team. As previously mentioned, Dubas has come out and stated that none of these players are going anywhere in the off-season.

Now the question has to be asked, should fans take his word at face value? Simply, no. By coming out and telling the public his plans for the off-season, he would only be decreasing the value of his assets.

This is not to say a big move is likely, but it would be foolish to rule it out. Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly will be Toronto Maple Leafs next year; this is pretty much fact. If a “Kawhi Leonard-esk move” were to happen, it would be either Mitch Marner or William Nylander.

Mitch Marner just had a career year scoring 97 points in 72 games while playing a big role on both special teams. The skill and talent of Mitch Marner is undeniable, but there are still question marks when it comes to his ability to perform under pressure.

In the last 5 games in the Lightning series, Marner had just 3 points (no goals) while being a -3. That said, he didn’t play poorly at all in the playoffs, it just was not at the level you would expect for a guy who just had a historic regular season. It is also worth noting that Marner will make just under $11 million dollars for the next 3 seasons.

William Nylander too had a career year posting 80 points in 81 games, with an incredible 68 of those points being primary, just 3 behind Marner. People denying the ability of Nylander are at this point just irrational. In the playoffs he scored at a point per game which is more than enough for a guy making under $7 million dollars. The questions arise when it comes to Nylander’s motor since at times his laziness makes Leaf fans want to rip their hair out. A combination of just below average defensive play, inability to play on the PK, and times when Nylander disappears makes him expendable to a certain portion of the fanbase.

More likely than not, both of these players will be in the lineup come opening day, but having both of them penciled in is very premature.

Overall, don’t expect the Leafs to look too different come opening night as the team is solid the way it is. Expect changes in goal with Campbell being a UFA while Mrazek proving to be not good enough to be a starter. There also may be an addition or two on forward with the expected departures of Kerfoot, Mikheyev and Blackwell. Also adding a cheap 7th defenceman who could play both sides may do the Maple Leafs wonders.