ROAD TO REDEMPTION

Jared Rotenberg

Before we get into the current season, and our playoff chances at this point in the year, it must be stated that one cannot accurately explain what’s truly on the line for the Toronto Maple Leafs, without acknowledging the disastrous ending to our previous season.

The Toronto Maple Leafs had one of their best years in franchise history, in a shortened 56-game 2020-21 season, finishing atop of the North Division with a record of 35-14-7. However, despite their incredible regular season performance, they ultimately blew a 3-1 series lead to the 4th place Montreal Canadiens in round one, losing the series 4-3 in a heartbreaking loss for Leafs Nation.

It was clear that the Maple Leafs were more talented than their first round opponent, however, at the end of the day, they were outworked and shut down by a physical, overachieving Habs team that quite simply had nothing to lose. This was a loss that would be difficult to forget, but for the players, coaching staff, and upper management, they had no choice but to move their sights forward; towards a new season.

For General Manager Kyle Dubas especially, he bet his career on this much needed redemption story with the group he assembled, and he knows his fate lies in the hands of his Toronto Maple Leafs. The pressure for the Leafs to finally find postseason success is high, and for the fans in Toronto, their patience for failure is quickly growing thin, making a playoff run all the more necessary.

New Additions

With most of the Maple Leafs core roster set to return for the 2021-2022 season, it was up to Kyle Dubas to find complementary pieces in order to make the Leafs stronger and more difficult to play. Dubas had a relatively strong offseason, signing goaltender Petr Mrazek, rookie-forward Michael Bunting, centerman David Kampf, winger Ondrei Kase, and lastly, physical winger Nick Ritchie (traded on February 19th for forward Ryan Dzingel and defensive defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin).

Despite the additions made, the Leafs did let major parts of the team go, for the simple reason that they did not have the cap space necessary to bring them back. Among the plethora of players let go by the Leafs, was goaltender Frederick Andersen, the Leafs starting goaltender since the 2016-17 season, who essentially had his job stolen from Jack Campbell (the Leafs current starting goaltender).

As well, winger Zach Hyman was a notable departure from the Leafs, and considering his nature as a gritty and relentless forward, filling this void would be a necessary move for the Maple Leafs to make. Nick Foligno, Joe Thornton, Zach Bogosian, Riley Nash, and Alex Galchenyuk, were also among the notable players who did not return to Toronto for the start of the new season. While of course there were plenty of major losses to the team, it was still commonly agreed upon amongst Leafs fans that we had a very productive offseason, that would surely make us a better and more difficult team to play, at least on paper. However, as we proved with our previous playoff run, being better on paper doesn’t mean anything if you cannot adequately find success, and for this reason, the pressure was on for these signings to work out in Toronto’s favour.

The 2021-2022 Season

With all of the background information out of the way, it’s finally time to get into the current season. When it came time for the 2021-2022 season to begin, Leafs fans were still (understandably) disgruntled, after last year's early-exit, and thus demanded instant results. But the Leafs, rather, began their season on a rocky note, and after a 4-4-1 month of October that included a 4 game losing streak, even the most passionate fans in Toronto were questioning whether the team had truly improved, and if they were destined for the redemption story that the fans in Toronto dream of.

But a franchise best, 12-2 record in the month of November, quickly changed the minds of fans everywhere. Throughout November, we saw the most promising signs of maturity within the group, as the Leafs shared a mindset that they needed to work hard every night, and continue fighting from start to finish every single night despite their record and despite the opponent. Commitments to defence, powerplay and penalty kill success, the core 4 and the depth scoring at will, and goaltender Jack Campbell playing like a Vezina candidate, all became regular parts of the Leafs game. As the Leafs climbed the standings, they convinced more and more fans that they were a team to be reckoned with, and a legit contender.

But both Mother Nature, and the Hockey Gods, had other plans for the Maple Leafs, as the pesky COVID-19 virus began to spread throughout the team, just as the month of December began. This put a halt to the Leafs season for a period of just about 3 weeks, but this was enough to very clearly shake us off our game.

The peak of November is something we have still been chasing since returning from this untimely break in the season, as we have not quite gotten back to the level of dominance we saw throughout that month. While the wins are still coming, and the Maple Leafs find themselves amongst the top of the league standings, it is the “killer instinct”, and ability to relentlessly dominate an opponent for an entire 60 minutes, that has rapidly disappeared from our game, a concerning sign for the Leafs and their playoff chances.

Our 12-5-1 record since our return from the COVID break cannot go unspoken about, however, as we have absolutely been finding ways to win. But it is the sloppy way in which we are playing on some occasions that has brought fear into the minds of Leafs fans and analysts alike. As well, a major concerning sign for this group is Jack Campbells rapid fall back to Earth, which is shining the light on some glaring holes in our roster that are no longer being bailed out by the A+ goaltending we saw earlier in the season.

We currently find ourselves with an outstanding 32-13-3 record, in 48 games so far this season, which places the Toronto Maple Leafs at seventh overall in league standings. However, what we learned last season is that a good record means nothing when you finally reach the playoffs. For this reason, the ways in which we are playing are significantly more important to look at in order to truly judge whether or not this team is capable of going on a run this year. We absolutely have been playing well, but there is definitely another level that the team needs to get to in order for the Leafs to truly stand toe to toe with the league’s toughest foes.

Defensive Play

One major factor that analysts consistently attribute to the Leafs early exits in the playoffs year after year is their weak defensive play. While defence is still absolutely an area that we need to improve upon at the trade deadline in order to truly make some noise in the postseason, it still must be stated that we have absolutely played well defensively this year. We haven’t been perfect, however the Leafs currently sit at 5th overall in goals against, with 131, and as well are among one of the best defensive teams in the league, a sign that we can truly compete with elite opponents night in and night out.

Beyond the numbers, it is clear that while watching the games that there is a strong commitment to defence within our group, which is allowing us to shut down opponents defensively on most nights. While I do absolutely have faith in the way our defensive core is playing, it is two players that are currently causing much of the panic amongst Leafs fans. Those being Jake Muzzin, and Justin Holl, both of whom have taken a major step back defensively compared to last year.

Still, despite this struggling defensive pair, there are promising signs that the defensive core will be improved further before the playoffs even begin, as evidenced by Kyle Dubas already going out and acquiring 6’2 defensive defenseman Ilya Lybushkin. Based on this trade, it is very clear that Dubas recognizes that the Maple Leafs can still be better defensively, despite the fact that they have already been rather good, which is something that can certainly help to push the Leafs over the edge in any future matchup.

Special Teams

One major difference in the way that the Leafs are playing this year compared to last season is both our powerplay and penalty kill, both of which have been phenomenal. For starters, when it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs power play, we currently sit at first place overall in the league by a wide margin, with a power play percentage of 31.6%, an absolutely ridiculous number to have over halfway into the season.

Our powerplay has remained dangerous all season long, and if it can continue to fire on all cylinders this can be something that does help us come playoff time (although penalties are of course called less often in the playoffs). Comparing this percentage to last season, we finished the year with the 16th best power play, with a 20% power play percentage, a night and day difference when compared to this current season.

When looking at our penalty kill, we currently sit tied for 5th place overall in the league, with a percentage of 84.6%. Compare this to our 24th place powerplay from last year (78.5%), and you can begin to see just how improved the Leafs special teams are. On the penalty kill, we have both been able to shut teams down defensively, as well as get chances on the rush, ultimately resulting in many shorthanded goals, something that we just did not see last season to this extent. The special teams are absolutely one of the most noticeable improvements when comparing the two seasons, and for this reason the hope is that this could prove to be a crucial difference maker.

Potential Opponents

Despite how strong the Toronto Maple Leafs have been, one of the most damning signs that is preventing many Leafs fans (myself included) from being too high on the Leafs when it comes to making playoff predictions, is the fact that they play in the Atlantic division, alongside the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Boston Bruins. Now the Leafs absolutely do have enough talent to matchup with, and prevail against any of these divisional opponents.

However, considering the offensive firepower of the Panthers, the physicality of the Bruins, and the fact that the Lightning are the NHL’s current back to back Stanley Cup Champions, there is truly no easy matchup for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Winning against any of these teams would require the defence to step up and improve, Jack Campbell to stand on his head and play like he did earlier in the season, and the core 4 to remain dominant (something that Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner failed to do last season in the playoffs, a major reason for our eventual demise).

The Toronto Maple Leafs are among the most skilled teams in the league, with enough talent to be a true contender, but their playoff past and these tough matchups makes it incredibly hard to confidently predict the Leafs to go on a large playoff run and get out of the Atlantic division with the teams they will surely have to go up against.

However, in saying that, it must be mentioned that there are no easy matchups in the playoffs, and last season against the Montreal Canadiens proved that being the heavy favourite is not always a good thing. Currently, if the playoffs were to start today, the Leafs would find themselves matched up against the Tampa Bay Lightning, which of course we would be major underdogs in, something that has the potential to go our way, despite the fact that it would still be an incredibly tough matchup for our group.

In my opinion, the matchup that is most desirable for the Toronto Maple Leafs would have to be the Florida Panthers, who are another offensive style team, which I believe we match up with very well. This is because they are built completely different than the shutdown style teams that we have regularly faced in the playoffs, which is a style of play that our core has never really had the opportunity to match up against in a recent playoff series (aside from the Washington Capitals in 2016-17).

Regardless of who the Maple Leafs have the privilege of matching up against, there is no matchup that would truly be easy, and remaining true to our offensive fire-power style of play, while also stepping up defensively, while avoiding getting into our own heads, would be an absolute necessity if we hope to win our first series since 2004, and go on a deep playoff run.

Summary

In summary, the Toronto Maple Leafs have played an incredibly strong season thus far into the year, however they will be given no favours or be granted any easy matchups on their road to redemption. After last year’s crushing defeat to the Montreal Canadiens, we have done many clear things to improve, but at this time, while a Maple Leafs playoff run is far from impossible, it is quite simply difficult to make a case for the Leafs taking out one of the top dogs in the Atlantic division, or even in the stacked Eastern conference.

The Leafs are more than talented enough to go on a run however, and I have faith in their capability, but despite our improvements defensively, special teams-wise, and despite our overall signs of maturity, after last year and our history of playoff collapses, betting on the Toronto Maple Leafs to make some noise come playoff time is very difficult at this time.

Could I be wrong in my assessment? Absolutely I could! But currently at this time, despite the many improvements and signs of growth I have seen from this team, I am finding it hard to predict the Leafs going on a major cup run considering who they will have to matchup against. But with all that said, whether I’m predicting a run or not, the Toronto Maple Leafs are absolutely playing like a contender, and they have more than enough talent to prove me wrong and finally make Leafs Nation, and the city of Toronto, proud.

Let’s see it!