PICK AND CHOOSE - LEAFS POSTSEASON

Jared Rotenberg

With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror, and the month of April beginning, it is finally time for the mad dash towards the playoffs. For the first time since 2019, the Stanley Cup Playoffs will be returning in its usual style. This return to normalcy, as well as the craziness of this year's regular season has made this upcoming playoffs one of the most anticipated in recent memory.

With the return of the usual playoff format, and the fact that a plethora of teams around the NHL are ramping up and playing like true cup contenders, it is a major challenge to accurately predict this year's playoffs and find an “easy” opponent. Regardless of this, teams and fan-bases alike are continuously taking their picks and identifying opponents that they want to play for a variety of reasons, essentially “shopping” for their ideal matchup.

Based on the current Eastern Conference Standings, the realistic opponents the Leafs may have to go up against are; the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Boston Bruins, the Florida Panthers (which would involve the Leafs falling into a wildcard spot), and the Carolina Hurricanes (which would also involve the Leafs falling into a wildcard spot).

If everyone on the Leafs plays to the level they are capable of, and if Jack Campbell can return to his early season dominance, the Leafs have more than enough skill to take down every single one of these opponents. However, based on their current playoff struggles, I find myself having to make the difficult choice of identifying which of these nightmare opponents I would rather play in this conference of death.

Despite acknowledging that once you qualify for the playoffs there is no team you can entirely count out, it must be stated that there are of course some matchups that are more favourable than others. This is exactly what we are looking to identify today, as we break down the best possible matchup for the Toronto Maple Leafs, as they quest to finally find playoff success. In order from least desirable to most desirable, here is who I want the Toronto Maple Leafs to go up against in the first round of the playoffs.

Carolina Hurricanes

In my opinion, the scariest team going into these playoffs is the Carolina Hurricanes, and the potential of a battle with the Canes has me shaking with fear. The Hurricanes currently have the NHL’s best goals against per game average of 2.29. This can be attributed to their phenomenal defensive game, and the amazing performance of Frederik Andersen. Considering the all too common trend of ex-Leafs showing up with huge performances against the Leafs, I don’t want to imagine what Freddy will do to show us up, if this series were to come to fruition.

Now of course, this may just be the paranoid Leafs fan in me speaking, however, something tells me a playoff series against an ex-Leafs goaltender with something to prove will be the furthest thing from fun. Top that off with the fact that he is also putting up Vezina-worthy numbers, the idea of facing off against Andersen in a playoff series has the potential to be disastrous for the Leafs. Of course, The reputation with Andersen is that he could never show up in key moments, but to me that simply sounds like a disaster waiting to happen for the Leafs as the narrative flipping on its head and biting us in the butt seems all but inevitable.

Maybe the storyline does hold up, and Freddy falls apart again, which is always a possibility. I'm just a writer, not a psychic, what do I know? But overall there is a large potential for struggles to arise against Andersen and the Hurricanes.

With the Canes defensive depth, their goaltending, the league's best penalty kill, and their offensive firepower that is no slouch either, I don’t believe I am crazy for being high on the Carolina Hurricanes heading into this year's playoffs. For this reason, with the defensive style they utilise, the Hurricanes are the team I believe the Leafs would have the hardest time against going into these playoffs, making them the least desirable matchup in my opinion.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The fact that this is a likely matchup possibility is absolutely terrifying. Following last year's embarrassing defeat to the Montreal Canadiens, we may ultimately end up in a tango against the team that shut down their miraculous run; the back to back Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

Putting their absolutely criminal offensive firepower aside for just a moment, I cannot help but to be shaken up by the thought of facing goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy in a 4-7 game series.

Considering in just the past two years alone, the storyline of our demise has come down to the Leafs getting “goalied” by goaltenders Joonas Korpisalo, Elvis Merzļikins, and Carey Price, forgive me for wanting nothing to do with a matchup against all 6’3” of Andrei Vasilevskiy. Despite what this year's regular season statistics say, he is still the greatest goaltender in the NHL in my opinion.

With his proven playoff resume, capped off by his win of the Conn Smythe trophy last season for being the playoff MVP, I would simply rather run in the opposite direction screaming like a baby, as opposed to a matchup against this human embodiment of a brick wall.

With him in net, and the star-studded lineup they have in front of him, it is no question that the Lightning would be a far from ideal opponent from the Leafs perspective. Despite being injured for a large component of this season, Nikita Kucherov is still a dominant player and a proven elite playoff scorer.

Him, alongside the likes of Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, and the remainder of this incredibly deep roster, the Lightning would absolutely be the heavy favourite in this potential matchup.

On paper I do believe the Maple Leafs match-up with them quite well, being stronger than the Lightning this season in many regards including in their goalscoring and powerplay. However, with the Lightning coming off of back to back championships, while the Leafs are struggling for their first series win in eighteen years, it is very clear who the favourite is.

I don’t hate the prospect of a Leafs underdog series, and I don’t believe the Lightning are impossible to take down, however, when discussing my least desirable matchups, the Tampa Bay Lightning are absolutely amongst the highest on my list of teams I want nothing to do with come playoff time.

Boston Bruins

So where do I begin with these guys? I don’t think I need to remind you of the pain that the Boston Bruins have brought to Leafs fans over just this past decade. The Toronto Maple Leafs have played in three seven-game series against the big bad Bruins in 2013, 2018, and 2019, all of which they came out on the losing end of. The thoughts of playing the Bruins and their extremely physical style of play for another series sounds like the stuff of nightmares for the Leafs.

Despite completely acknowledging that I am scared to play the Bruins again, and would in fact struggle to pick Toronto as the favourite, I will still say that the Leafs are a more skilled team than Boston and are more than capable of beating them in a series. This is not the same roster that has embarrassed Toronto in the past, and unless you look in the grit category, the Leafs today are most certainly better than the Bruins on paper.

A major argument for why we have a chance in this potential series is the fact that in net for the Bruins stands unproven rookie goaltender Jeremy Swayman. He is having a phenomenal season this year, putting up a .920 save percentage and a 2.23 goals against average, however there is no guarantee he carries this great play into the playoffs, and for this reason I would certainly take this goalie matchup over some of the alternative options against other potential opponents.

Facing the Bruins physical style in a series would be far from easy, however, based on the fact that the Bruins have taken the last three playoff matchups between these teams, the Leafs would be considered to be a severe underdog, which could fare well for Toronto.

The Bruins have of course been the cause of much of the Leafs despair for years, and if the Leafs were to somehow take them down, it would provide the group with a momentum boost that would not be possible against any other opponent.

The potential of taking them down, slaying the “dragon,” and achieving that momentum boost almost makes the idea of a matchup against the Boston Bruins worth it for the Toronto Maple Leafs. For these reasons, the Bruins are in second place when it comes to playoff series desirability, at least in my opinion.

Florida Panthers

Lastly, the team that I believe the Leafs would have the best chance against, is surprisingly the first seeded Florida Panthers. The Panthers have been one of the strongest teams in the NHL for essentially this entire season, currently leading the entire league in goals per game. So why is it that I believe they would be our most desirable matchup?

Well, it all comes down to style of play, as the Panthers consistently rely on out scoring their defensive flaws. In recent memory, our playoff opponents, such as; the Montreal Canadiens, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Boston Bruins, have all utilised a strong, physical, and defensive shutdown style.

This style of play has proven to be successful in distinguishing the Leafs offensive attack. This is why I believe a matchup against a high-flying Panthers team- that is not as strong defensively, would be incredibly favourable for our core; one that has not yet come to face an opponent with a roster constructed in this way.

It is not to diminish the Panthers, who are of course an amazing team. However it is simply the fact that the Leafs offensive weaponry wouldn't be shut down to the same extent against this team that makes me desire this playoff matchup.

The Panthers do have one of the deepest rosters in the entire NHL, and based on their offensive firepower, it must be stated that the Panthers are no slouch by any stretch of the imagination. However, in a division where there are no easy matchups, I do believe that an offensive series against Florida allowing the Leafs to stick to their offensive style of game would be the best case scenario.

While the Panthers do have good defenseman on their team such as Aaron Ekblad and MacKenzie Weegar, it is their overall system of play that very much favours offence as opposed to a shutdown game, which should benefit the Leafs similar style of play extremely well.

The final argument that solidifies the Panthers as the most ideal matchup for the Leafs is their inconsistency in net. Sergei Bobrovsky is a skilled goaltender having a good season, however he consistently has stretches where his level of play dips dramatically.

This inconsistency will make for a much more balanced goaltending matchup than we would otherwise see against teams such as the Hurricanes or Lightning. When considering the ways in which all of the other Eastern conference teams play, the sloppy “out scoring your flaws” strategy that the Panthers utilise is one that I strongly believe the Leafs would match up against very well.

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While certain teams are more or less desirable than others, there are of course no easy matchups in the NHL playoffs, especially in the Eastern Conference of death that the Leafs find themselves within. If they want it enough, the Leafs have the skill and capability to take down any one of these divisional, conference-wide, or even league-wide opponents, it is simply about Jack Campbell and all of our star pieces stepping up to the challenge against any of the nightmare opponents we ultimately face.

As they say, “to be the best, you have to beat the best,” and with the way the Leafs roster is constructed, this team can absolutely defeat teams of this calibre if they want it bad enough.

Will the Leafs be able to step up and finally go on a deep run this upcoming postseason? Or will the tough matchups that await them ultimately lead to them getting sent home early once again? Well, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see!